Will the new TikTok Notes app be more popular than Instagram by the end of 2025?
Will the new TikTok Notes app be more popular than Instagram by the end of 2025?
Plus
25
Ṁ31972026
5%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolved via comparison of worldwide monthly active users for 2025 as reported by Sensor Tower or other reliable data or news source.
Title will be updated to include proper name of TikTok's rumored new photo-sharing app once it is officially released. If it is not released for whatever reason, this will resolve no.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
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and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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